RAND Europe Reports: Forecasts for the UK Armed Forces Community

This report provides the most complete profile of the AFC ever produced. It demonstrates strikingly how the demographics of our community are changing – showing a rapid decline in the number of older veterans, with the population falling from over 2 million in Great Britain at Census 2021/22, to an estimated 1.7 million in 2025 and around 1.1 million by 2045.

By 2025, around half of veterans are likely to be under 65. The only age group expected to grow are those aged 16-29, meaning the community will be increasingly working-age. The AFC is also becoming more diverse, with expected increases in female, nonUK, and ethnic minority Regular personnel and veterans, along with changing family structures.

These shifts point to changing needs across the community – from childcare, employment, and mental health to later life care – and underline the need for services to adapt.

This report explores how key needs are likely to change, drawing on Census data on health, disability, and unpaid care. As the veteran population becomes smaller and more working age, the total number of disabled veterans will fall, though there will continue to be around 300,000 disabled veterans in 2045, many of whom will benefit from tailored support. The number of disabled veterans in younger age groups is likely to rise, with a growing proportion related to mental health.

Numbers of veterans and families providing unpaid care will decrease, but levels of caring will remain high. Needs across the community will become increasingly diverse, requiring services and policy to be tailored to support people throughout life.

This report also explores the potential to conduct forecasting for a range of other needs, and highlights the significant limitations in available data, which make it impossible to accurately understand likely future patterns on most issues. The gaps identified must be addressed in future research and data collection.

This report offers the first estimates of the size and profile of the bereaved Armed Forces community. With no official statistics – other than for family members who receive Ministry of Defence compensation after a Service related bereavement – many bereaved people have previously been ‘uncounted’, despite being a vital and valuable part of the AFC, and often eligible for support.

The report suggests that each year there are likely to be over 100,000 people in our community each year who are bereaved, the vast majority of these being spouses or partners of veterans, or veterans bereaved of their spouse or partner. In 2025, around 1,200 children and young people were bereaved of a veteran parent, around 30 partners and a similar number of children bereaved of a serving person, and around 40 serving personnel bereaved of their partner.

It also sets out gaps in understanding the wider bereaved community and explores how patterns may change if there is largescale conflict.